BIMCO released its dry bulk shipping market overview & outlook for October 2024, in which it is highlighted that slower demand growth has pressured freight rates.
During 2024, the supply/demand balance in the dry bulk shipping market has improved and the full year is expected to end stronger than 2023. However, in the main scenario BIMCO expects a weakening of market conditions in 2025 and 2026.
For both years, BIMCO is working with two demand scenarios depending on when ships can fully return to the Red Sea.
In the base scenario, BIMCO assumes on its overview, that ships will return to Red Sea and Suez Canal routings in 2025, whereas the alternative scenario is assumed to only happen in 2026.
However, in both scenarios, the supply/demand balance will be weaker in 2026 than in 2024. Furthermore, in the base scenario, the balance will significantly weaken in 2025, as demand for ships falls 0.5-1.5% but grows 2-3% in 2026.
In the alternative scenario, the market weakens more gradually as demand grows 0.5-1.5% in 2025 and up to 1% in 2026. Supply is forecast to grow by 2-3% in both 2025 and 2026 regardless of scenario.
In addition, BIMCO assumes that in either scenario, ships will have fully returned to the Red Sea in all of 2026. Should the attacks persist for longer, the dry bulk market will be stronger than forecast. However, even then, the 2026 market is expected to be weaker than in 2024.
Supply/demand:
- Supply is forecast to grow 2.5% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. Recycling of older tonnage is expected to increase amid weaker market conditions.
- Demand is forecast to fall 1% in 2025 and grow 2.5% in 2026 if ships fully return to the Red Sea in 2025. Low cargo demand growth over the next two years is expected.
- BIMCO expects a weakening of market conditions in 2025 and 2026 as supply grows faster than demand.
- There is high uncertainty regarding when ships can fully return to the Red Sea. Upon their return, demand is expected to fall by 2%.
Supply:
- The fleet is expected to grow 5.2% between end 2024 and end 2026. Stable deliveries and increased recycling will slow fleet growth.
- 14.6m DWT are expected to be recycled between 2024 and 2026. It is expected to increase from a low baseline as freight rates weaken. In 2024, it was the lowest since 2007.
- Sailing speed could slow by up to 1.0% in 2025 amid lower freight rates. There is an absence of new global regulations coming into effect, which would encourage slower speed.
Demand:
- According to the IMF, global GDP is forecast to grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026. Without adequate stimulus, China’s economic growth is expected to slow.
- Iron ore shipments are estimated to grow 0.5% from 2024 to 2026. Weak Chinese steel demand and higher recycled steel production will limit growth in shipments.
- Coal shipments are forecast to fall by 3.5% between 2024 and 2026. Higher electricity generation from renewables and higher mining in India and China are weakening the outlook.
- Between 2024 and 2026, grain shipments are forecast to increase by 1.5%. The global maize supply remains tight amid weaker volumes from Ukraine.
