If this sixfold rise occurs, Asia's installed offshore wind capacity will reach 52 GW and be almost on par with Europe, the global offshore wind leader.
According to Rystad data, China has contributed more than 94% of Asia’s current operational offshore wind capacity. The country now accounts for 5.9 GW of the continent’s 6.3 GW of offshore wind capacity, having already surpassed its target of 5 GW by 2020. The Chinese government will phase out its imposed feed-in-tariffs after 2021, which means a large number of projects in the pipeline aim to reach this deadline.
Rystad Energy expects several projects to miss the 2021 mark, but since a large share of these developments have already been substantially matured, we expect developers to still go ahead with their projects and accept a slightly reduced feed-in-tariff. China is therefore forecast to see high activity levels continue between 2021 and 2024, before slowing down somewhat in 2025.
The remaining 6% of Asia’s current operational offshore wind capacity is found in Taiwan (128 MW), Vietnam (105 MW), South Korea (99 MW) and Japan (56 MW). These are expected to boost their share of the regional and global offshore wind market significantly towards 2025 and beyond.
For example, Taiwan and Vietnam plan to add substantial volumes in the short to medium term with several high-profile projects in the pipeline, with Taiwan in particular offering opportunities for non-Asian developers and suppliers. Countries such as South Korea and Japan are expected to add to growth in the longer term.
China will still lead the growth, but its share of the installed base is forecast to decline from the current 94% to about 70% by 2025.
Taiwan will be the key hub for non-Asian developers and service providers in the shorter term, while Vietnam is expected to see high activity levels towards 2025 and reach around 6.1 GW of capacity by 2025, but nearly three-quarters of this will come from so-called intertidal projects.
Asia will provide substantial opportunities for international suppliers, but further down the road it could also signal stiffer global competition as local Asian players become seasoned in this new industry and start expanding beyond their home markets,
...says Alexander Fløtre, Rystad Energy’s Product Manager for Offshore Wind.