According to a recent research by NASA scientist Ron Kwok of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, published in Environmental Research Letters, Arctic’s sea ice has changed since 1958 from once older, thicker ice to mostly younger, thinner ice.
According to Mr. Kwok, between 1958 – 1976 and 2011 – 2018 the average thickness near the end of the melt season, in six regions, decreased by about 66% over six decades.
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Within the data release area, the thinning of winter since 1980 has not changed significantly, as the mean thickness over the is about 2 m.
However, the 15 year satellite record depicts losses in sea ice volume at 2870 km3/decade and 5130 km3/decade in winter and fall (October–November), respectively. These losses are more moderate trends compared to the sharp decreases over the ICESat period, where the losses were weighted by record-setting melt in 2007.
In addition, from 1999 to 2017 the Arctic has recorded a decrease of more than 50% multiyear sea ice (MYI). Namely, MYI now covers less than one-third of the Arctic Ocean.
Independent MYI coverage and volume records co-vary in time, with the MYI area anomalies explaining about 85% of the variance in the anomalies in Arctic sea ice volume.
The study concludes by saying that if losses of MYI continue, Arctic thickness/volume will be controlled by seasonal ice. This means that the thickness/volume trends will be more moderate but more sensitive to climate forcing.
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