Ambrey assesses that the security of future transits through the Red Sea will largely depend on the Houthi movement’s actions in relation to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.
While the Houthi have stated they will continue military operations in support of Palestinians if Israel persists in its actions, there are indications that they may cease offensive operations against merchant shipping if there is a reduction in suitable targets. However, a reduction in their maritime offensive may appear as if they have halted operations, though this should not be mistaken for a complete cessation of hostilities, Ambrey highlights.
Ambrey also notes the possibility of a resurgence of the Yemeni Civil War, which could shift Houthi targets to coalition shipping instead of Israel-affiliated vessels. Any active support of US airstrikes in Yemen, particularly in the northwest, could further escalate tensions and revive the conflict.
Overall, the security situation remains fragile, with the Houthi continuing to pose a latent threat to maritime operations in the region.