Russian tankers, a segment of what’s referred to as the “shadow fleet,” have been linked to approximately 50 incidents in the last three years, as reported by Allianz. This information sets the stage for a forthcoming comprehensive report on maritime risks scheduled for publication later in the month.
As informed, shipping is increasingly subject to growing volatility and uncertainties from war and geopolitical events, climate change risks, such as drought in the Panama Canal, and the resurgence of piracy.
Recent incidents in the wake of the conflict in Gaza have demonstrated the increasing vulnerability of global shipping to proxy wars and disputes. Between November 19, 2023, and the beginning of April 2024, there were more than 50 attacks against merchant shipping in the Red Sea by Houthi militants in response to the conflict. We have also seen the first total loss of a vessel, the first fatal attack, as well as signs that the crisis may have spread following the seizure of a container ship by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important chokepoint for oil shipping.
The war in Ukraine and the Red Sea attacks have also revealed the increasing threat to commercial shipping posed by drones, which are relatively cheap and easy to make, and difficult to defend against without a large naval presence.
Warfare is changing, as are the weapons that can cause damage to ships. Such weapons are becoming more precise and can find their way into the hands of non-state actors, such as proxy groups or terrorists.
…says Captain Nitin Chopra, Senior Marine Risk Consultant, Allianz Commercial.
According to Allianz, the attacks in the Red Sea have severely impacted Suez Canal transits, while a lack of rain and the El Nino phenomenon contributed to the second driest year in the Panama Canal’s history, also affecting transits. Both routes are critical for the transport of manufactured goods and energy between Asia, Europe, and the US East Coast.
A gradual tightening of international sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports over the past three years since its invasion of Ukraine has resulted in the emergence of a sizable ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers, mostly older vessels that operate outside international regulation and often without proper insurance. This situation presents serious environmental and safety risks in key chokepoints where oil is shipped.
Russia is not the only country to operate a shadow fleet. Iran and Venezuela have used such tankers to circumvent sanctions and maintain oil exports. Estimates put the size of the dark fleet at between 600 to 1,400 vessels, roughly a fifth of the overall global crude oil tanker fleet.
Much of the shadow fleet is likely poorly maintained and may not have undergone appropriate inspections. Shadow tankers also participate in the dangerous practice of ship-to-ship transfers in the open ocean, as well as turning off Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to obscure their identity. Vessels have been involved in at least 50 incidents to date, including fires, engine failures, collisions, loss of steerage, and oil spills. The cost of dealing with these incidents often falls on governments or other vessels’ insurers if one is involved in an incident.
As long as there are sanctions on countries like Russia and Iran, the shadow fleet looks here to stay.
…says Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader Marine Hull, Allianz Commercial.
